In statistics, an effect size is a value measuring the strength of the relationship between two variables in a population, or a sample-based estimate of that quantity. It can refer to the value of a statistic calculated from a sample of data, the value of one parameter for a hypothetical population, or to the equation that operationalizes how statistics or parameters lead to the effect size value. Examples of effect sizes include the correlation between two variables,Rosenthal, Robert, H. Cooper, and L. Hedges. "Parametric measures of effect size." The handbook of research synthesis 621 (1994): 231–244. the regression coefficient in a regression, the mean difference, or the risk of a particular event (such as a heart attack) happening. Effect sizes are a complement tool for statistical hypothesis testing, and play an important role in power analyses to assess the sample size required for new experiments. Effect size are fundamental in meta-analysis which aim to provide the combined effect size based on data from multiple studies. The cluster of data-analysis methods concerning effect sizes is referred to as estimation statistics.
Effect size is an essential component when evaluating the strength of a statistical claim, and it is the first item (magnitude) in the MAGIC criteria. The standard deviation of the effect size is of critical importance, since it indicates how much uncertainty is included in the measurement. A standard deviation that is too large will make the measurement nearly meaningless. In meta-analysis, where the purpose is to combine multiple effect sizes, the uncertainty in the effect size is used to weigh effect sizes, so that large studies are considered more important than small studies. The uncertainty in the effect size is calculated differently for each type of effect size, but generally only requires knowing the study's sample size ( N), or the number of observations ( n) in each group.
Reporting effect sizes or estimates thereof (effect estimate EE, estimate of effect) is considered good practice when presenting empirical research findings in many fields. The reporting of effect sizes facilitates the interpretation of the importance of a research result, in contrast to its statistical significance. Effect sizes are particularly prominent in social science and in medical research (where size of treatment effect is important).
Effect sizes may be measured in relative or absolute terms. In relative effect sizes, two groups are directly compared with each other, as in and . For absolute effect sizes, a larger absolute value always indicates a stronger effect. Many types of measurements can be expressed as either absolute or relative, and these can be used together because they convey different information. A prominent task force in the psychology research community made the following recommendation:
As in any statistical setting, effect sizes are estimated with sampling error, and may be biased unless the effect size estimator that is used is appropriate for the manner in which the data were sampled and the manner in which the measurements were made. An example of this is publication bias, which occurs when scientists report results only when the estimated effect sizes are large or are statistically significant. As a result, if many researchers carry out studies with low statistical power, the reported effect sizes will tend to be larger than the true (population) effects, if any. Another example where effect sizes may be distorted is in a multiple-trial experiment, where the effect size calculation is based on the averaged or aggregated response across the trials.
Smaller studies sometimes show different, often larger, effect sizes than larger studies. This phenomenon is known as the small-study effect, which may signal publication bias.
"The terms 'small,' 'medium,' and 'large' are relative, not only to each other, but to the area of behavioral science or even more particularly to the specific content and research method being employed in any given investigation... In the face of this relativity, there is a certain risk inherent in offering conventional operational definitions for these terms for use in power analysis in as diverse a field of inquiry as behavioral science. This risk is nevertheless accepted in the belief that more is to be gained than lost by supplying a common conventional frame of reference which is recommended for use only when no better basis for estimating the ES index is available." (p. 25)
Sawilowsky http://digitalcommons.wayne.edu/jmasm/vol8/iss2/26/ recommended that the rules of thumb for effect sizes should be revised, and expanded the descriptions to include very small, very large, and huge. Funder and Ozer suggested that effect sizes should be interpreted based on benchmarks and consequences of findings, resulting in adjustment of guideline recommendations.
noted for a medium effect size, "you'll choose the same n regardless of the accuracy or reliability of your instrument, or the narrowness or diversity of your subjects. Clearly, important considerations are being ignored here. Researchers should interpret the substantive significance of their results by grounding them in a meaningful context or by quantifying their contribution to knowledge, and Cohen's effect size descriptions can be helpful as a starting point." Similarly, a U.S. Dept of Education sponsored report argued that the widespread indiscriminate use of Cohen's interpretation guidelines can be inappropriate and misleading. They instead suggested that norms should be based on distributions of effect sizes from comparable studies. Thus a small effect (in absolute numbers) could be considered large if the effect is larger than similar studies in the field. See Abelson's paradox and Sawilowsky's paradox for related points.
The table below contains descriptors for various magnitudes of d, r, f and omega, as initially suggested by Jacob Cohen, and later expanded by Sawilowsky, and by Funder & Ozer.
0.10 |
0.30 |
0.50 |
This form of the formula is limited to between-subjects analysis with equal sample sizes in all cells. Since it is less biased (although not unbiased), ω2 is preferable to η2; however, it can be more inconvenient to calculate for complex analyses. A generalized form of the estimator has been published for between-subjects and within-subjects analysis, repeated measure, mixed design, and randomized block design experiments. In addition, methods to calculate partial ω2 for individual factors and combined factors in designs with up to three independent variables have been published.
The f2 effect size measure for multiple regression is defined as:
Likewise, f2 can be defined as:
or
for models described by those effect size measures.
The effect size measure for sequential multiple regression and also common for PLS modelingHair, J.; Hult, T. M.; Ringle, C. M. and Sarstedt, M. (2014) A Primer on Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM), Sage, pp. 177–178. is defined as:
where R2 A is the variance accounted for by a set of one or more independent variables A, and R2 AB is the combined variance accounted for by A and another set of one or more independent variables of interest B. By convention, f2 effect sizes of , , and are termed small, medium, and large, respectively.
Cohen's can also be found for factorial analysis of variance (ANOVA) working backwards, using:
In a balanced design (equivalent sample sizes across groups) of ANOVA, the corresponding population parameter of is
wherein μ j denotes the population mean within the jth group of the total K groups, and σ the equivalent population standard deviations within each groups. SS is the sum of squares in ANOVA.
where r1 and r2 are the regressions being compared. The expected value of q is zero and its variance is
where N1 and N2 are the number of data points in the first and second regression respectively.
In the practical setting the population values are typically not known and must be estimated from sample statistics. The several versions of effect sizes based on means differ with respect to which statistics are used.
This form for the effect size resembles the computation for a t-test statistic, with the critical difference that the t-test statistic includes a factor of . This means that for a given effect size, the significance level increases with the sample size. Unlike the t-test statistic, the effect size aims to estimate a population parameter and is not affected by the sample size.
SMD values of 0.2 to 0.5 are considered small, 0.5 to 0.8 are considered medium, and greater than 0.8 are considered large.
Jacob Cohen defined s, the pooled standard deviation, as (for two independent samples):
where the variance for one of the groups is defined as
and similarly for the other group.
Other authors choose a slightly different computation of the standard deviation when referring to "Cohen's d" where the denominator is without "-2"
This definition of "Cohen's d" is termed the maximum likelihood estimator by Hedges and Olkin,
and it is related to Hedges' g by a scaling factor (see below).
With two paired samples, an approach is to look at the distribution of the difference scores. In that case, s is the standard deviation of this distribution of difference scores (of note, the standard deviation of difference scores is dependent on the correlation between paired samples). This creates the following relationship between the t-statistic to test for a difference in the means of the two paired groups and Cohen's d' (computed with difference scores):
and
However, for paired samples, Cohen states that d' does not provide the correct estimate to obtain the power of the test for d, and that before looking the values up in the tables provided for d, it should be corrected for r as in the following formula:
where r is the correlation between paired measurements. Given the same sample size, the higher r, the higher the power for a test of paired difference.
Since d' depends on r, as a measure of effect size it is difficult to interpret; therefore, in the context of paired analyses, since it is possible to compute d' or d (estimated with a pooled standard deviation or that of a group or time-point), it is necessary to explicitly indicate which one is being reported. As a measure of effect size, d (estimated with a pooled standard deviation or that of a group or time-point) is more appropriate, for instance in meta-analysis.
Cohen's d is frequently used in estimating sample sizes for statistical testing. A lower Cohen's d indicates the necessity of larger sample sizes, and vice versa, as can subsequently be determined together with the additional parameters of desired significance level and statistical power.
The second group may be regarded as a control group, and Glass argued that if several treatments were compared to the control group it would be better to use just the standard deviation computed from the control group, so that effect sizes would not differ under equal means and different variances.
Under a correct assumption of equal population variances a pooled estimate for σ is more precise.
However, as an estimator for the population effect size θ it is biased.
Nevertheless, this bias can be approximately corrected through multiplication by a factor
Hedges and Olkin refer to this less-biased estimator as d, but it is not the same as Cohen's d.
The exact form for the correction factor J() involves the gamma function
There are also multilevel variants of Hedges' g, e.g., for use in cluster randomised controlled trials (CRTs).Hedges, L. V. (2011). Effect sizes in three-level cluster-randomized experiments. Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, 36(3), 346-380.
CRTs involve randomising clusters, such as schools or classrooms, to different conditions and are frequently used in education research.
This essentially presents the omnibus difference of the entire model adjusted by the root mean square, analogous to d or g.
In addition, a generalization for multi-factorial designs has been provided.
From the distribution it is possible to compute the Expected value and variance of the effect sizes.
In some cases large sample approximations for the variance are used. One suggestion for the variance of Hedges' unbiased estimator is
If the two groups are independent,
Phi can be computed by finding the square root of the chi-squared statistic divided by the sample size.
Similarly, Cramér's V is computed by taking the square root of the chi-squared statistic divided by the sample size and the length of the minimum dimension ( k is the smaller of the number of rows r or columns c).
φ c is the intercorrelation of the two discrete variables and may be computed for any value of r or c. However, as chi-squared values tend to increase with the number of cells, the greater the difference between r and c, the more likely V will tend to 1 without strong evidence of a meaningful correlation.
While both measures are useful, they have different statistical uses. In medical research, the odds ratio is commonly used for case-control studies, as odds, but not probabilities, are usually estimated. Relative risk is commonly used in randomized controlled trials and cohort study, but relative risk contributes to overestimations of the effectiveness of interventions.
The sample estimate is given by:
where the two distributions are of size and with items and , respectively, and is the Iverson bracket, which is 1 when the contents are true and 0 when false.
is linearly related to the Mann–Whitney U statistic; however, it captures the direction of the difference in its sign. Given the Mann–Whitney , is:
Units of Cohen's g are more intuitive (proportion) than in some other effect sizes. It is sometime used in combination with Binomial test.
is the point estimate of
So,
wherein
and Cohen's
is the point estimate of
So,
For each j-th sample within i-th group X i, j, denote
While,
So, both ncp( s) of F and equate
In case of for K independent groups of same size, the total sample size is N := n· K.
The t-test for a pair of independent groups is a special case of one-way ANOVA. Note that the noncentrality parameter of F is not comparable to the noncentrality parameter of the corresponding t. Actually, , and .
Cohen's f2
Cohen's q
Difference family: Effect sizes based on differences between means
Standardized mean difference
Cohen's d
Glass' Δ
Hedges' g
Ψ, root-mean-square standardized effect
Distribution of effect sizes based on means
Strictly standardized mean difference (SSMD)
If the two independent groups have equal ,
Other metrics
Categorical family: Effect sizes for associations among categorical variables
Commonly used measures of association for the chi-squared test are the Phi coefficient and Cramér's V (sometimes referred to as Cramér's phi and denoted as φ c). Phi is related to the point-biserial correlation coefficient and Cohen's d and estimates the extent of the relationship between two variables (2 × 2).Aaron, B., Kromrey, J. D., & Ferron, J. M. (1998, November). Equating r-based and d-based effect-size indices: Problems with a commonly recommended formula. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Florida Educational Research Association, Orlando, FL. (ERIC Document Reproduction Service No. ED433353) Cramér's V may be used with variables having more than two levels.
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Cohen's omega (ω)
Odds ratio
Relative risk
Risk difference
Cohen's h
Probability of superiority
Effect size for ordinal data
Cohen's g
Confidence intervals by means of noncentrality parameters
t-test for mean difference of single group or two related groups
t-test for mean difference between two independent groups
One-way ANOVA test for mean difference across multiple independent groups
See also
Further reading
External links
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